All WISCONSINWX.COM posts and stories from February 2018
Watching a winter storm for Mar 1-2 that looks to impact either central or southern Wisconsin. Plenty of uncertainty. 
Winter Storm Warning issued. Better early than never I guess! Storm arrives after 6PM Saturday night.
SNOW DEPTH - 14-25" of snow on the ground in northern Wisconsin. You will add to that snow-pack this weekend with the third winter storm in the last seven days. Meanwhile southern Wisconsin has forgotten what snow looks like.
Forecast prepared for Saturday night but need to wait until 12Z model run complete to publish. Too much disagreement between models this morning mostly in terms of location. The strength differences we can deal with.
Very happy with the snow forecast last night. 7" amounts were mentioned for snow belt. Barely missed in Eau Claire but could not have predicted that. Freezing rain was generally correct, on the lower end of the expected range. Still snowing in the UP of Michigan.
Thought it was interesting that the 00Z Canadian run had two camps for the weekend storm. Camp A aligns with GFS, camp B is off to the east and includes the operational. I wonder what the 12Z will look like
Want to push an update tonight before we start talking Thursday and this weekend. Lot of new stuff coming. 
Slipping deeper into the current weather pattern. Changes coming in early March when upper level pattern retrogrades.
Last of the storm slowly moving out. Mostly rain at this point. 
12GFS showing a fun snow event for this weekend. Working on a member blog discussing the uncertainty. 
Ice in Oshkosh
Only after a full day of heavy snow with 10" accumulations, Douglas county finally gets a Winter Storm Warning. Ashland never got a warning and they had 12". Are these counties that sparsely populated or that used to snow? I'm sure there is a good explanation. Did these warnings not make it to our system?
FLOOD ADVISORY - The National Weather Service issued a Flood Advisory in southern Wisconsin. 0.5-1.0" of estimated rainfall on frozen ground is causing minor flooding on highways 'n such. Travel safely! More rain is expected overnight into tomorrow.
Forecasting mixed precipitation is not easy. In this situation just trying to broad brush central Wisconsin with "Icy". Sleet can get very slippery too and the temperature profile in northern Wisconsin is more supportive of slippery conditions. A little warm in the south. Stationary front is sitting over central Wisconsin. 
A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain to Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday. It will not snow, sleet, or rain the entire time. Precipitation will arrive in two main waves. Freezing rain/sleet is expected due to cold air at the surface across central and/or southern Wisconsin. Early estimates suggest ice accumulation could exceed 0.25" by Tuesday night. The details will matter and with shifts in storm track still possible, I will wait to add that detail until later.
Based on January data, the best matched years suggest March could be pretty wet. I'm not confident on this idea yet but throwing it out there anyway.
NORMAL vs. AVERAGE: AVERAGE is the statistical mid point. NORMAL is the variation back and forth between extremes. Wisconsin will NEVER have an AVERAGE winter in terms of precipitation or temperature on a daily resolution. It is colder than AVERAGE and we've had a NORMAL winter w/ respect to temperature fluxes. The NWS should know better than this. This is a recurring misconception and my pet peeve.
SNOW TONIGHT/SUN AM - A storm system will come together southeast of Wisconsin and lay down a ribbon of snow across the great lakes, including southeast Wisconsin. 2-5" is possible in the southeast corner with lighter amounts west of that. Snow should be in and out by noon on Sunday. I suspect the *majority* of snow totals will be in the 1-3" range. The best chance for 5" will be in Racine/Kenosha counties where the NWS has implemented an advisory.
The storm tonight, Friday, and possibly Saturday belongs to a decreasing PNA/ AO teleconnection regime, the best pattern for heavy snow in Wisconsin. Next week we head deeper into this pattern with a deeper western trough digging in the southern stream. Mid-range models are not that interesting for Wisconsin. They do show a storm system during the 2/13-2/16 timeframe crossing the country further to the south. Maybe models change to support a bigger storm in future runs? At this moment I'm betting that the peak time for this pattern is our current system as we flux into the western trough. Just not thrilled with next week yet.
8-12" is expected near and south of the WI/IL by midnight Friday. Snow is expected to begin at or after 6PM on Thursday and could be heavy at times. Lesser amounts are expected north of I-94, to an inch or less in central Wisconsin. Some adjustments may be needed tomorrow as details become clearer
Two systems will ride the boundary in the coming days, the first arriving early Friday morning. Potential exists for several inches of snow accumulation in southern Wisconsin by Saturday night. Cold continues into next week.
Snows over in Oshkosh! 
I've got the dash cam doing a long duration timelapse tonight. Taking black betty to the ice races in Oshkosh in an hour or two. Waiting for snow intensity to increase.
The 24-48HR period this winter has been especially tough
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