Okay, chances are I have no clue what I am talking about and that I am wrong about this since I am a total noob at making my own forecasts, but when looking at GOES 16 imagery and the surface analysis this is what I interpreted.Â
Basically, there is an an area of slight wind shear along and just east of the boundary between the moist air stream from the Pacific and a dry slot that I think might provide just enough instability to create a band of isolated CBs ahead of the boundary embedded in tonight's rainfall leading to "a few rumbles of thunder" in parts of the area during the rain event.Â
Looks like NC Wisconsin is going to get the most rainfall
Quiet weather has given me the opportunity to take break. Much has changed in the last three weeks. Getting ready for storm chasing season.
Snow ratios look okay, except eastern Wisconsin. SLRs above 20:1 were not what I expected. Really interesting. Overage somewhat balanced out by lower QPF.