Radar & Current Warnings

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Strange forecast on the AO today with many taking a nose dive by Feb 1. I don't buy it yet since I do not see it on the models, but -AO of this magitude will certainly lead to cold. Then on the PNA side you have one member totally going negative while the rest trend toward positive. 
Our first snowfall prediction map for the Sun-Mon event. Forecast coming soon. Watching freezing rain potential in central Wisconsin, possibility of locally higher amounts in the 6-12. Rain to the south. Keeping Tues AM wrap-around precip out of for now
WIWX 6.2 launched this afternoon! Don't forget to refresh your browser cache or hit F5 + CTRL to update page appearance if it looks weird. Will try to fix this for next update.
southern trend in most models today following the EC's lead. At the surface most models are pretty close to the EC. The ensembles are leaning in that direction. At 850-700mb I see some things that need to be sorted out. Storm is coming on shore now. GFS CMC storm track is actually from Dubuque to Sheboygan, EC slightly south of that. 
Moisture for the Sun-Mon storm will come from eastern Mexico and western Gulf of Mexico. What I call a "moisture front" arrives just as storm #1 pulls away. The moisture will get buffeted slightly early next week but will be ready for #2 as it crosses the country. The stage is set moisture-wise for some interesting weather late January and Feb. If we can get the AO to slide back positive while holding onto a weakly negative PNA we will be in good shape. Curious to see how things come together in that 6-14 day period. It's been such a boring winter to this point. 
A low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes Sunday 1/21 -> Mon 1/22. Rain, snow, and mixed precipitation is expected with this system. Models have been trending north since the start of this week suggesting more rain for Wisconsin. The storm track will KEEP CHANGING as we get closer, but this is what it's looking like right now.
There are issues with the tag and category pages that will be fixed on the next release. 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
2.3"
Image on the left was the initial forecast from Saturday. Right is from this morning. The southern trend in the last 24 hours was unexpected and the trend continued right through the start of the event. Snow was clumped over the southwest and northeast and not evenly distributed across the rest of Wisconsin. Never make the same mistake twice. I learned a few things. First, broad brushing WI with 3-6" did not work. I could have lowered them in the north. The map in between these (not pictured) was actually pretty close. Second was to post snow maps too early that forces you to bias previous ideas. There will be changes before the next system. 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
1.5"
Just one of those years I guess
60 DAY PRECIPITATION TREND - Snowfall has not been distributed equally across Wisconsin during the first half of winter. This liquid precipitation (including snow melted to water) departure from average map shows northern Wisconsin has come through near average. They are doing alright. lake effect has helped in upper Michigan. Meanwhile folks in the south are facing a 2.0" deficit. It has been colder than average, which should mean more snow/less precip. The storm track has been out of the northwest bringing dry Canadian clipper systems, efficient but narrow snows. What exposed southern WI/northern IL this winter is the lack of a big storm (snow or rain). We'll see if we can change this trend in the months ahead.
Looking at historical data for Oshkosh. We are at 4.1" snow accum. This is the lowest since the 2014-15 winter which is only a few years back. 2012 had 0.9" through Jan 10. So lack of snow is not uncommon at KOSH. What is uncommon is the combination of below avg temp and below avg snow. On average more cold = more snow. There is one year with this relationship that had same level of snow accum (<=5"). 1925 was much warmer in the second half of winter, precip at average, snow below avg. We don't know much else about 1925. This demonstrates that it is rare to be this cold and not have the snow to go with it. It translates into a boring, cold start to winter but I would be surprised in this trend continued into the second half of the 2017-18 winter. 
SNOW DEPOSITS - 2-6" of snow was deposited onto northwest Wisconsin by the latest storm. 9.3" of heavy snow fell in Gile with help from lake Enhancement. Lesser amounts in central and northeast regions. The freezing rain impact yesterday was very localized. Combo of warm ground temperatures and quick moving front turned out to be unfavorable for ice accumulation. Rapidly falling temperatures left us with icy spots today.
Heavy snow is developing across northwest Wisconsin. Looks like 2-6" of additional snow accumulation, lesser amounts in the northeast. To the south, light freezing rain was reported in northeast Iowa earlier. This precipitation is moving into southern Wisconsin now. Up to 0.10" of ice accumulation is possible this afternoon. And for the icing on the cake, a 50F temperature swing from northwest to southeast Wisconsin! flash freeze seems likely. Precipitation will end tonight.
24HR temp change shows location of cold front across western Wisconsin. Feels great in Oshkosh this morning. 
40F difference in high temps from northwest to southeast Wisconsin tomorrow. Everyone cools off with the cold front passage. 
Here we go, Wisconsin. We are entering a stormy and unsettled pattern. Tendency towards upper level troughiness will return to western north america to the first time this winter. 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
1.0"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.4"
Launched multiple updates this week with another ready for next week. Having intermittent issues with Google maps and geolocation, mainly on first load on the community page. I have bigger plans to change this page and process so we'll wait until the time is right. Researched teleconnections and historical data yesterday which has caused me to rethink plans. So at a natural break that I'm taking advantage of. Will see where my motivation is after new years. Been itching to post member only content too but not in a writing mood. A little frustrated with current weather pattern that's been cold and dry, so studying historical events such as feb 2 2011. 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.4"
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.4"
Snow
SNOW
WEST BEND, WI WASHINGTON
0.5"
Light snow or flurries will be possible statewide starting tomorrow morning lingering on and off all the way into Monday morning. 1- 2" of snow accumulation possible statewide; the best chance for snow across southeast Wisconsin during the day Sunday. Harsh cold really takes hold Monday night with high temperatures near zero or the single digits possible Tuesday! (Img - Snow accumulation by noon Monday)
Well that was an interesting run of the GFS lol 3.5 days of continuous snow and 23" later. I've seen a lot of crazy stuff that never happens in the 170 hr & beyond range. This is right up there with the best of them. Might have to hold onto this one.
Thought CIPS was interesting today for Friday-Saturday AM analogs. It seems this pattern more times than not produces accumulating snowfall across southeast Wisconsin. Obviously this was based on one run with no consistency. We're playing with fire a little bit. If 00Z models trend west we'll know whats coming. A low pressure track pointed at western Lake Erie is what we're looking for. The 18Z NAM for what it's worth, at the edge of it's range; is encouraging. 18Z GFS slipped east a bit from 12Z but close to NAM.

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