Snow Ending Tonight

Timeframe:3:00 AM WED to 9:00 PM WED
Confidence:Below Average
Primary Hazard:Winter Storm
Class: 3 - Moderate
Forecaster:Justin Poublon

Last Update: 9:11 PM - Wed February 20, 2019


A storm system will bring several inches of snow to Wisconsin on Wednesday. Forecast models still disagree on location and amounts. See member only discussion for more details.

Member Only Discussion

Everyone gets snow in this minor to moderate(north) impact event. Overnight models shifted closer to the GFS prediction from yesterday which means a slight increase in snow totals. Confidence is still below average. The EC/GFS develops a stronger burst of snow in central Wisconsin during the mid-day associated with 850mb WAA and upper level divergence. This seems to interrupt the moisture flow into northwest WI...the NAM does not show this. Not sure the 850mb/upper divergence forcing will equate to efficient snow accumulation. These are the key differences between the EC/GFS and NAM; both camps could be right. Tough call. There will be a little enhancement along lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin but it should be covered by our prediction. The combination of increasing temperatures rising to around 32F and decreasing snow ratios during the day - in southern and eastern Wisconsin - could make accumulation an uphill battle. I don't want to get too carried away with that ideology. 

With the complexity, I've decided to forecast up to what would occur without melting/compaction and let mother nature handle the final outcome. The changes today are to broad brush...taking the map down from a 5-8" to 4-7" to cover the lows and a bigger area overall. The 8" amounts will be most likely in Minnesota/Iowa, perhaps northwest Wisconsin from Minneapolis to Duluth if banding is present.

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Regions: Central IA, Northeast IA, Northeast IL, Northwest IL, Upper MI, Central MN, Northeast MN, Southeast MN, Northeast WI, Northwest WI, Southeast WI, Southwest WI, Western WI

Notes(admin only)

Forecast Grade: C



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February 18
Wisconsin Weather
photo by Wisconsin Weather

Thunderstorm Outlook Types

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Tornadoes are possible today, but your outlook only shows a Strong t-storm threat?
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