Snow Ending Tonight

Timeframe:3:00 AM WED to 9:00 PM WED
Confidence:Below Average
Primary Hazard:Winter Storm
Class: 3 - Moderate
Forecaster:Justin Poublon

Last Update: 9:11 PM - Wed February 20, 2019

Summary

A storm system will bring several inches of snow to Wisconsin on Wednesday. Forecast models still disagree on location and amounts. See member only discussion for more details.

Member Only Discussion


Everyone gets snow in this minor to moderate(north) impact event. Overnight models shifted closer to the GFS prediction from yesterday which means a slight increase in snow totals. Confidence is still below average. The EC/GFS develops a stronger burst of snow in central Wisconsin during the mid-day associated with 850mb WAA and upper level divergence. This seems to interrupt the moisture flow into northwest WI...the NAM does not show this. Not sure the 850mb/upper divergence forcing will equate to efficient snow accumulation. These are the key differences between the EC/GFS and NAM; both camps could be right. Tough call. There will be a little enhancement along lake Michigan in eastern Wisconsin but it should be covered by our prediction. The combination of increasing temperatures rising to around 32F and decreasing snow ratios during the day - in southern and eastern Wisconsin - could make accumulation an uphill battle. I don't want to get too carried away with that ideology. 

With the complexity, I've decided to forecast up to what would occur without melting/compaction and let mother nature handle the final outcome. The changes today are to broad brush...taking the map down from a 5-8" to 4-7" to cover the lows and a bigger area overall. The 8" amounts will be most likely in Minnesota/Iowa, perhaps northwest Wisconsin from Minneapolis to Duluth if banding is present.


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Regions: Central IA, Northeast IA, Northeast IL, Northwest IL, Upper MI, Central MN, Northeast MN, Southeast MN, Northeast WI, Northwest WI, Southeast WI, Southwest WI, Western WI

Notes(admin only)

Forecast Grade: C

Snow

Snow
0-1"
1-2"
2-5"
5-8"
8-12"
12-18"
18-24"
24"+

Start and End Times


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Images

February 18
Wisconsin Weather
photo by Wisconsin Weather

Thunderstorm Outlook Types

What is the outlook forecast timeframe?
Forecast timeframes change and are defined by start and end dates which differ by storm event.
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We are independent and capable of creating our own forecasts. We are experts on Wisconsin severe weather trends having chased storms for many years. Our accuracy is as good or better than the alternatives.
What does "Target" zone for Thunderstorm outlooks mean?
"Target" = most likely to be impacted. We treat it like a target area in storm chasing which is a combination of logic and gut feeling. "Target" zones are often (but not always) upgraded to the next threat level on subsquent updates. We challenge ourselves with trying to bullseye the greatest impact.
Are outlooks member-only?
Day 1 is always open to the public(free), but Days 2+ are member only "insider information". Outlooks take a lot of time/effort. They are special forecasts tailored to Wisconsin. Occassionally admins will use Day 2+ outlooks for forecast graphics and facebook stories.
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Yes, you may share any graphic on this page even if it's member only. A shout out is always appreciated!
How are these maps created?
We draw them in Google Maps and process them on our website. Each map is hand drawn from scratch by one of our admins.
Tornadoes are possible today, but your outlook only shows a Strong t-storm threat?
Tornadoes can occur in non-severe storms with no lightning, hail, or gusty winds. We would call that a strong thunderstorm. Severe and Significant thunderstorm threats would suggest mulitple tornadoes and/or strong tornadoes.Matter of semantics but also designed to suppress "cry-wolf" ideology.
How are outlook color table schemes determined?
Trial and error over a long period of time. If something looks or feels weird it gets changed eventually.
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