Heavy Rain This Weekend

Timeframe:3:00 PM FRI to 6:00 AM MON
Confidence:Below Average
Primary Hazard:Heavy Rain
Class: 2 - Minor
Forecaster:Justin Poublon

Last Update: 9:14 AM - Tue May 21, 2019


Tonight, Saturday, and Sunday will bring multiple chances for rain and thunder to Wisconsin. Models still disagree on exactly where the heaviest rain will fall but all show potential for 2-4".

Member Only Discussion

TONIGHT - T-storms in northern Iowa were quick to produce 2" of rainfall accumulation this evening. This activity will move north across Wisconsin tonight. Just the first of several rounds of rain this weekend.

Wisconsin Weather
10:00PM FRI radar image. Rain moving through southern WI.

SAT/SUN - Models still disagree on exactly where the heaviest rain will fall. All suggest 2-4" somewhere in Wisconsin by early Monday AM. I've continued to blend models together to create the 2-4" zone and will not adjust any further. I don't know exactly where those 4" amounts will end up. I'm skeptical of the models putting the heaviest rains over the northwest. I suspect convection will keep the heaviest rain across central or southern WI. Just not sure. Challenging forecast.

With so much rain and clouds we likely won't see much t-storm threat this weekend. Will handle anything that develops on a short term basis.

Regions: Northeast IA, Upper MI, Southeast MN, Northeast WI, Northwest WI, Southeast WI, Southwest WI, Western WI

Notes(admin only)

Forecast Grade: F

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain

All Layers



May 17
Wisconsin Weather
photo by Wisconsin Weather
May 17
Wisconsin Weather
photo by Wisconsin Weather
May 16
Rainfall forecast for Friday PM, Saturday, Sunday. The system finally ends Monday AM.
photo by Wisconsin Weather

Thunderstorm Outlook Types

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Tornadoes are possible today, but your outlook only shows a Strong t-storm threat?
Tornadoes can occur in non-severe storms with no lightning, hail, or gusty winds. We would call that a strong thunderstorm. Severe and Significant thunderstorm threats would suggest mulitple tornadoes and/or strong tornadoes.Matter of semantics but also designed to suppress "cry-wolf" ideology.
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