Heavy Rain This Weekend

Timeframe:3:00 PM FRI to 6:00 AM MON
Confidence:Below Average
Primary Hazard:Heavy Rain
Class: 2 - Minor
Forecaster:Justin Poublon

Last Update: 9:14 AM - Tue May 21, 2019

Summary

Tonight, Saturday, and Sunday will bring multiple chances for rain and thunder to Wisconsin. Models still disagree on exactly where the heaviest rain will fall but all show potential for 2-4".

Member Only Discussion


TONIGHT - T-storms in northern Iowa were quick to produce 2" of rainfall accumulation this evening. This activity will move north across Wisconsin tonight. Just the first of several rounds of rain this weekend.

Wisconsin Weather
10:00PM FRI radar image. Rain moving through southern WI.

SAT/SUN - Models still disagree on exactly where the heaviest rain will fall. All suggest 2-4" somewhere in Wisconsin by early Monday AM. I've continued to blend models together to create the 2-4" zone and will not adjust any further. I don't know exactly where those 4" amounts will end up. I'm skeptical of the models putting the heaviest rains over the northwest. I suspect convection will keep the heaviest rain across central or southern WI. Just not sure. Challenging forecast.

With so much rain and clouds we likely won't see much t-storm threat this weekend. Will handle anything that develops on a short term basis.


Regions: Northeast IA, Upper MI, Southeast MN, Northeast WI, Northwest WI, Southeast WI, Southwest WI, Western WI

Notes(admin only)

Forecast Grade: F

Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain
0.5-1.0"
1-2"
2-3"
3-6"
6-10"
10"+

All Layers


Verification


Images

May 17
Wisconsin Weather
photo by Wisconsin Weather
May 17
Wisconsin Weather
photo by Wisconsin Weather
May 16
Rainfall forecast for Friday PM, Saturday, Sunday. The system finally ends Monday AM.
photo by Wisconsin Weather

Thunderstorm Outlook Types

What is the outlook forecast timeframe?
Forecast timeframes change and are defined by start and end dates which differ by storm event.
Why should I use WISCONSINWX.COM Hazardous Weather Outlooks over other alternatives?
We are independent and capable of creating our own forecasts. We are experts on Wisconsin severe weather trends having chased storms for many years. Our accuracy is as good or better than the alternatives.
What does "Target" zone for Thunderstorm outlooks mean?
"Target" = most likely to be impacted. We treat it like a target area in storm chasing which is a combination of logic and gut feeling. "Target" zones are often (but not always) upgraded to the next threat level on subsquent updates. We challenge ourselves with trying to bullseye the greatest impact.
Are outlooks member-only?
Day 1 is always open to the public(free), but Days 2+ are member only "insider information". Outlooks take a lot of time/effort. They are special forecasts tailored to Wisconsin. Occassionally admins will use Day 2+ outlooks for forecast graphics and facebook stories.
Can I share outlook graphics?
Yes, you may share any graphic on this page even if it's member only. A shout out is always appreciated!
How are these maps created?
We draw them in Google Maps and process them on our website. Each map is hand drawn from scratch by one of our admins.
Tornadoes are possible today, but your outlook only shows a Strong t-storm threat?
Tornadoes can occur in non-severe storms with no lightning, hail, or gusty winds. We would call that a strong thunderstorm. Severe and Significant thunderstorm threats would suggest mulitple tornadoes and/or strong tornadoes.Matter of semantics but also designed to suppress "cry-wolf" ideology.
How are outlook color table schemes determined?
Trial and error over a long period of time. If something looks or feels weird it gets changed eventually.
© 2019 Wisconsin Weather Group | All Rights Reserved
v8.21