1/16/2018 - Weekend Storm Update
We've been watching a Colorado low for a couple days now that will impact Wisconsin Sunday 1/21 to Monday 1/22. Over the last 24hrs our storm has been on a northerly trend. On Monday it was tracking over Chicago. Now it looks like it will pass over Madison. And tomorrow? Here are some of my thoughts today. As always this information is prone to change!
At the time of writing; the GFS and EC maintain the southern most track; a track across southern Wisconsin. This would place the snow north and central, rain south with possibility of wrap around snow behind the system. The Canadian is well north and considered an outlier, especially relative to it's own ensemble mean track which leans to the GFS/EC. We haven't ruled out southern Wisconsin. We haven't ruled out the Canadian.
In my opinion however, this system pretty solid on a track across southern Wisconsin. Snow north. Rain south. I've prepared myself mentally for it already. I have seen southward shifts before. The Monday storm experienced a 100mi southern trend in the last 24 hours! We really don't "know for sure". But it's super fun to talk about so lets keep this party going!
The trough responsible for our storm digs in across the southern Rockies on Saturday, as far south as northern Mexico! This trough lifts maybe a bit too soon. This is pretty typical as the leader system since it's digging into a realtively stiffer airmass and doesn't have the support behind to drive the campaign (at least initially). We usually see a series of storms come out of this pattern with the next storm targeting south of the previous. I would say southern Wisconsin definitely has better odds with the next one, should it occur. Models really want to bring ridging back to the west and it muddles the overall picture so I wouldn't bet the house on more storms.
CIPS analogs point at northern Wisconsin. The Tues 18Z GFS reminded me of the 2/25/2007 storm which pummeled central Wisconsin as the overall pattern is similar. That storm occluded in southern Wisconsin, and sat there for awhile. That is very rare, but a possible scenario. The Tues 18 GFS showed this pretty well strengthening upper level trough across central plains.
So we'll see.
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