I would like to start a regular blog dedicated to our members discussing the weather ahead. It might take a few tries to get the blog title and content straightened out. If all goes well, I want to write an update about once per week.
All forecast information unless otherwise stated comes directly from my personal opinion, perspective, and interpretation of the forecast models. If you feel I've missed anything important please leave a comment as I'm always looking for ways to improve my methods! There will be low priority things I miss or decide not to talk about such as daily temperatures, wind speeds, uv index, etc. I will tend to talk about severe weather, storm chasing, hypothetical situations, and go into the weeds sometimes. I am biased toward exciting weather. My definition of severe weather may be different from yours. In general, this might remind you of NWS forecast discussions.
My intent is to provide our members with honest and original weather information you won't find anywhere else. Following recent events I've learned that my expertise in Wisconsin weather has value and needs to be shared even if nobody is listening. Perhaps overtime we can turn this thing into a real party! Please know that this information is FREE, so if you decide you want to share some of these idea's with others please be sure to attach this link or cite my name when sharing! Let's help each other!
Right now we are locked-in a northwest flow regime. This is signaled by a jet stream orientated northwest to southeast across the great lakes region. If you can imagine a downhill ramp from western Canada; we get the air masses and the continental weather. NW flow feels fantastic in summer, I just dislike the lack of major storms. The cold upper low that hung around last week bringing several days of hit/miss showers is easing off to the east, but we still have northwest flow. Northwest flow can be a thunderstorm producer especially when cold upper lows move through. Typically you need more surface heating and moisture; such as is present in June or July.
- 500mb temps for 7PM sat, upper level ridge across western NOAM. Wisconsin on the cool side.
Right now reminds me of how February and March flipped this year. The timing of signature weather patterns has been off from that of 2012-2016, since December. I felt the May 15 - 17 barrage of severe weather was early, and now we have northwest flow when typically it's southwest flow and wet. This cold, Canadian air mass is suppressing what typically is the peak of the severe weather season when all severe parameters are typically present. Once the upper level ridge slips past, I'm betting we'll be in a wetter westerly flow. I'm expecting that to occur during or just after the second week of June (~mid-June). This lines up with what the CPC has been showing lately too. What that means for severe weather I'm not exactly sure. Everything feels herky-jerky right now.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY - An upper level disturbance riding the northwest flow will kick of showers and storms from Friday night through Sunday. It will be summery with a nice cool down on Sunday. I will spend most of my time discussing t-storm potential.
Friday night activity will be stuck in sand across northwest Wisconsin with upper level flow very weak. Thunderstorms also looking more likely after dark and despite a nicely veered profile, there is almost no shear or movement to the atmosphere, thus "stuck in the sand". Coverage should be scattered to isolated. Cannot rule out hail near the Mississippi River. Not impressed.
Saturday is different, and I'm thinking things will come together a little better for thunderstorms across Wisconsin. I'm not certain of anything currently advertised by 12Z model suite. I like the way NAM models show things but I'm not convinced. A little help from the 500mb jet arriving later would be nice and if storms can organize into a line, they might possess a damaging wind threat. It will depend on how the surface low evolves and whether storms can get out ahead of it instead of playing catch up. The GFS suffers from lower resolution compared with the NAM in this situation, but the spread gives you best case - worst case. Thermodynamics are good with t-storm chances peaking around peak heating (that always helps) with an approaching cold front.
- NAM 4K for Saturday
Sunday the main low passes by to the east. Wisconsin is bisected by the mid-level dry slot and other lame severe parameters. Even with small cold core low passing through likely to kick off showers or storms again, they probably won't be severe by my definition. Westerly flow from top to bottom. Not impressed. Feels like more of the same.
Next Week - 6/5-6/10 Northwest flow continues next week. We might have another chance for showers on Thursday, then changes arrive by next weekend I think. The third week of June should be distinctly different from the front half of June, potentially with some big time storms. I think mother nature is buttering us up, at least my section of Wisconsin(EC/NE WI) which hasn't seen severe weather yet this year.
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