Western Trough Develops This Weekend?

Feb 5 2018 9:30 AM CST| 2 Comments | Wisconsin | Long Range Forecast

The jet stream will develop a trough in the west by this weekend. This is slightly unexpected given the dominance of the ridging in the west recently. Both GFS and EC ensembles show negative height anomalies in the west by Saturday.

GEFS showing trough in the west Saturday Feb 11.

This may lead to one or two major storms crossing the plains towards the Great Lakes this weekend into early next week. The GFS ensembles are more amplified and showing at least two systems between 2/10 and 2/13. The PNA has switched gears as well and is now forecast to fall back towards neutral this week. This is different from the forecasts last week which wanted to drive it well into +PNA land. Neutral is not a bad place to be.

PNA returning to neutral.

The 06Z GFS showed a pair of storms in the mid range. Of course much could change but this is what this type of pattern could bring, if the GFS is correct.

Two storms on the horizon?

It should be noted that the time of writing the CPC has not updated there forecasts to reflect this pattern. The 8-14 day analogs show stormy signal across the Great Lakes with a conflicted CPC precip and temp forecast. So that's interesting. In mid-December we had a storm system similar to this fall apart in the final 72hrs. The 00Z Canadian certainly looked weaker and reminiscent, while the 12Z is still weaker but looks like the system we had this past weekend.

CPC 6-10 Day analog forecast (left) vs. CPC forecast(right) created Feb 4, 2018. Wonder if today's forecast will change?
I'm curious to see where this goes.


Premium Content

Become a member or sign in to unlock this content!
Tags GFSPNA
~ spread the word~
  • Create
Write post here...
Sign in or register to join the conversation!
© 2018 Wisconsin Weather Group | All Rights Reserved
v7.21