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Wisconsin Weather

SEP 12, 2019 | UPDATED - Heavy Rain This Week (Sep 10-13)

LAST UPDATE : SEP 13, 2019

Well...Monday night did not go as planned. 3.0" in Muscoda and Brodhead. A few other surpises. Most of the heavy rain ended up in southern Wisconsin. This having to do with convective t-storms blocking the northward advance of moisture.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL - BELOW AVERAGE

The main thing is getting the word out. Making sure you are aware. Where the rain eventually drops should not be a surprise. If it doesn't come you'll understand why. What's needed from a forecaster standpoint is a blend between convective models and mid-range models. Still hard to pinpoint exactly where but southern WI is becoming more likely.

WED, THU, & FRI AM - Multiple chance for rain between today and Fri AM. The heaviest rains will depend on convective trends. This is not a recipe for confident forecasts. Convective models have the most activity across southwest and west-central WI. I'm losing hope original forecast for northern WI. Still wet with rain but less heavy I suspect; at least until THU PM or FRI AM when the cold front swings through.

Will update this event later this morning when 12z models are in. I think 2-4" storm total rain accumulation is a great baseline message. There could definitely be locally higher amounts. But before we speculate on those; will wait for a bit more model agreement.

GFS forecast. Little consistence. Heaviest rains should be in this zone somewhere.
GFS forecast. Little consistence. Heaviest rains should be in this zone somewhere.
JP

Forecast Maps

Storm Details

Hazards
Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms
Start
TUE 3:00 PM - Sep 10, 2019
End
FRI 10:00 AM - Sep 13, 2019
Confidence Level
Storm Class

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