1PM WEDS -
WEDS 10:00AM
12z runs did not help much so I've reverted to monitoring current trends. Sit tight.
(See below) Fluid dynamics in the atmosphere. The 500mb analysis today shows the incoming westerlies pushing a wrinkle, bulge, or disturbance on it's leading edge that will hit us tonight. It's a surge in flow. Behind the red line is a different regime. Pretty amazing.
500 mb chart showing bulge at the leading edge of the incoming jet surge, westerlies intensifying
WEDS 7:00AM - VIDEO UPDATE
TUES 4:00 PM - Bumping Wisconsin into strong category for Wednesday night into Thursday AM. I think in either case widespread severe weather is possible. Please sit tight for now. I will have another update tomorrow. Focused in on this 110% this week. Alerts will be sent tomorrow.
TUES 10:30AM - There are two scenario's for Wednesday overnight into Thursday AM.
1. Activity in MN/Iowa/SW WI during the day/afternoon limits destabilization across Wisconsin thus limiting the severe threat. Would still have some strong to severe potential.
OR
2. Wednesday daytime activity is inconsequential and Wisconsin fully destabilizes which could lead to a widespread event.
Either way strong forcing will trigger storms across the region during this time-frame.
Will wait to see how the next 24 hours plays out. Giving this event a large Target zone until we can be certain which path it will take. Not seeing really much drying of low level moisture today across the state so have to figure Wednesday with just a little sun the atmosphere will be ready to go. Very impressive shear environment. And worst case scenario that this widespread system comes through full bore overnight, it will have plenty of organization so I would expect severe threat to be there all night. Could pop out Thus AM at sunrise with a neat shelf cloud? We'll see.