NOTE - I went with severe zone today because I feel I have been systematically too stingy on severe threat this summer.
Wisconsin Weather
TUES PM/OVERNIGHT - A line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop across portions of Iowa and Minnesota later Tuesday afternoon. These storms will then progress to the east across western Wisconsin, eventually weakening somewhat as they pass through the rest of Wisconsin after dark, overnight into WEDS AM.
The peak threat for severe weather will be mainly west of the Mississippi River, HOWEVER - severe storms could develop as far north as Eau Claire late in the evening. I'm assuming moisture is over-forecast by the models, thus it is more likely severe storms will stay across the highlighted region. The entire northern half of WI could bust here, or have a strong storm pull north with the surface low into the UP? Not entirely certain. But given thermodynamics will lean away from the latter scenario.
Threats include all of the above. Hail and wind. Maybe a tornado in the severe zone.
FOR WISCONSIN - Majority of the action should be after sunset as energy decreases. As storms push east the best parameters will strip away but would probably still have organized structures remaining. Also starting to impinge on diurnal minimum with activity mainly after 00z. So I don't expect the severe threat to translate east. Would not be suprised if a stronger storm or two crossed the I-39 corridor...but overall not concerned.
OTHER NOTES
I really wanted to bring severe zone up into the Mineapolis, MN area but most of the CAMS keep develop just to the southeast.
-JP