UPDATE 2:30PM THU - Model trending slightly further south over the last 24 hours with a low pressure system moving in tonight. Timing also a bit quicker. Fixed a typo with storm end time.
MAINLY RAIN - Models solid on 0.5-1.0" of rainfall generally south of Wausau. That's the southern two-thirds of the state, with likelihood of a few spots exceeding that to 1.0-1.5". Looking at the overall picture I didn't feel there was a enough there to add a 1-1.5" zone and didn't want to draw too much attention to it either. Doesn't seem to be anything specifically driving the higher amounts there vs. other areas. I just moved the target south and trimmed it up a bit. Overall yes, a few spots over 1.0" but not the whole target area...and there could be one or two spots outside of that hitting 1.0" too.
SNOW NW WI - I trimmed this up quite a bit and brought it further south to match latest trends. When you add in lake effect going through Thursday night it warrants a push into 3-6" for western UP/far northern WI, locally higher amounts possible in that area too. Should remain in the snowbelt region with 1-3" outside of that, back towards Minneapolis.
INCREASING WINDS GUSTS - On the southern side of the system gusts of 30-40 MPH are expected; strongest on the high points in southeast WI and Lake Michigan shoreline. Wind gusts are expected to stay minimal/weak initially THU AM and during the mid-day hours in northern Wisconsin. This is due to the track of the surface low right through Wisconsin and weak pressure gradient on the northern side. This will change Thursday afternoon and evening as the surface low moves on and cold air pours in behind. Winds gusts up to 30 MPH out of the north/northwest for most of WI Thursday night.
Windy.com showing 30-40MPH gusts for southeast Wisconsin and lower Michigan on Thursday
JP