"impact-based decision support resource that uses an objective approach to find similar historicalevents to the upcoming forecast. By incorporating historical impact data with a conditional climatology of the model forecast, forecasters can use the analog guidance to identify similar historical events and the risk of high-impact threats" - CIPS website
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Thought CIPS was interesting today for Friday-Saturday AM analogs. It seems this pattern more times than not produces accumulating snowfall across southeast Wisconsin. Obviously this was based on one run with no consistency. We're playing with fire a little bit. If 00Z models trend west we'll know whats coming. A low pressure track pointed at western Lake Erie is what we're looking for. The 18Z NAM for what it's worth, at the edge of it's range; is encouraging. 18Z GFS slipped east a bit from 12Z but close to NAM.
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