12:19PM - Adding an outlook zone to northern WI. Didn't see that one coming. See below for more details
10:20AM THU - latest models have trended slightly weaker for tonight likely due to delayed exit of the morning convective system. This, plus scattered storm coverage and a little uncertainty will not be pushing this very hard especially with Friday ahead of us. STILL, the parameters coming together tonight would favor an isolated severe storm or two overnight with the warm front pressing north. My plan is to monitor trends throughout the day and have been planning a night chase. Just have a hard time believing nothing will happen like a few models suggest. The short range models have jumped onto this idea to support the broader consensus. Keep an eye on it.
THU 8:30AM - Waiting for 12Z run and monitoring developments in Iowa before taking next steps.
THU 7:05AM -Here is the video forecast. Outlook has been updated since.
WEDS 7:00AM VIDEO UPDATE
Excessive heat and instability will press against a warm front in central Wisconsin Thursday evening with strong upper level westerlies. Strengthening parameters into the early evening hours. We will have the warm front trigger but very limited upper forcing will likely mean limited storm coverage. This could mean one or two severe storms tracking east along the warm front during the late afternoon, more likely evening hours. Given the amount of instability present expecting surface based parcels to remain uncapped late into the evening.