Justin Poublon
Storm Chaser
Joined: 2016
Storm chaser since 2009. Meteorologist by definition since 2013. WISCONSINWX.COM website manager.

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Freezing Rain
FREEZING RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.13"
Only after a full day of heavy snow with 10" accumulations, Douglas county finally gets a Winter Storm Warning. Ashland never got a warning and they had 12". Are these counties that sparsely populated or that used to snow? I'm sure there is a good explanation. Did these warnings not make it to our system?
FLOOD ADVISORY - The National Weather Service issued a Flood Advisory in southern Wisconsin. 0.5-1.0" of estimated rainfall on frozen ground is causing minor flooding on highways 'n such. Travel safely! More rain is expected overnight into tomorrow.
Freezing Rain
FREEZING RAIN
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.01"
Forecasting mixed precipitation is not easy. In this situation just trying to broad brush central Wisconsin with "Icy". Sleet can get very slippery too and the temperature profile in northern Wisconsin is more supportive of slippery conditions. A little warm in the south. Stationary front is sitting over central Wisconsin. 
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.3"
A winter storm will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain to Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday. It will not snow, sleet, or rain the entire time. Precipitation will arrive in two main waves. Freezing rain/sleet is expected due to cold air at the surface across central and/or southern Wisconsin. Early estimates suggest ice accumulation could exceed 0.25" by Tuesday night. The details will matter and with shifts in storm track still possible, I will wait to add that detail until later.
Based on January data, the best matched years suggest March could be pretty wet. I'm not confident on this idea yet but throwing it out there anyway.
NORMAL vs. AVERAGE: AVERAGE is the statistical mid point. NORMAL is the variation back and forth between extremes. Wisconsin will NEVER have an AVERAGE winter in terms of precipitation or temperature on a daily resolution. It is colder than AVERAGE and we've had a NORMAL winter w/ respect to temperature fluxes. The NWS should know better than this. This is a recurring misconception and my pet peeve.
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Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
0.5"
SNOW TONIGHT/SUN AM - A storm system will come together southeast of Wisconsin and lay down a ribbon of snow across the great lakes, including southeast Wisconsin. 2-5" is possible in the southeast corner with lighter amounts west of that. Snow should be in and out by noon on Sunday. I suspect the *majority* of snow totals will be in the 1-3" range. The best chance for 5" will be in Racine/Kenosha counties where the NWS has implemented an advisory.
Snow
SNOW
OSHKOSH, WI WINNEBAGO
1.0"
The storm tonight, Friday, and possibly Saturday belongs to a decreasing PNA/ AO teleconnection regime, the best pattern for heavy snow in Wisconsin. Next week we head deeper into this pattern with a deeper western trough digging in the southern stream. Mid-range models are not that interesting for Wisconsin. They do show a storm system during the 2/13-2/16 timeframe crossing the country further to the south. Maybe models change to support a bigger storm in future runs? At this moment I'm betting that the peak time for this pattern is our current system as we flux into the western trough. Just not thrilled with next week yet.
8-12" is expected near and south of the WI/IL by midnight Friday. Snow is expected to begin at or after 6PM on Thursday and could be heavy at times. Lesser amounts are expected north of I-94, to an inch or less in central Wisconsin. Some adjustments may be needed tomorrow as details become clearer
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