SAT 1:15PM - (see maps) Models wetter today but sticking with 1-2" narrative, locally 3". Convective short range models are much wetter in southeast WI(all of WI honestly). I won't deny the probably of 2-3"+ amounts in/around the Chicago/lower lake Michigan region possibility extending up towards Milwaukee? Will stick close to the previous ideas and low res models here. I could've zoned in a higher 2-3" zone in the SE MN region HOWEVER last time I tried that it didn't go so well. Will mention the possibility instead.
FRI 8:30AM - We need the rain so this is a GOOD THING. Wisconsin is 1.5" below average since May 1. This event will help bring us back to average.
Precipitation departure from average ending on 5/13.
Models show 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Low res 06zNAM was the most aggressive bringing 2" to northern Wisconsin. It's at odds with the high res NAM that brings heaviest rains into southern WI. I've taken a broad approach with a GFS/EC blend. The impact overall appears low so I'm not pushing out alerts right now.
THUNDERSTORMS - Three factors contributing to a low severe threat atm:
1. Timing is unfavorable. AM/morning.
2. Cloud cover.
3. Rain & Debris. Too much clutter to allow for destabilization suppressing the boundary layer.
If timing slowed down then perhaps a severe threat might emerge for Sunday afternoon in far southern WI/Illinois.
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