Big pain in the butt. No change to the overall forecast. It's the snow amounts that is really holding me up. GFS came in low again which does not help. Only the GFS supported our previous forecast. I'm definitely going to change the way I handle DAY 2 snow maps.
This is a unique storm and perhaps that what throws everyone off.
All models except the GFS/CAN show 1.00-1.15" max QPF in central Wisconsin. At a 14:1 SLR that is close to 16". That's probably the storm maximum potential. Meanwhile the GFS is half that in some locations. I've decided to mostly ignore the GFS, still respecting the lower amounts but not being afraid to go after the 10-15" zones. I can understand why it might be doing this. Weaker forcing. Not as intense with morning snow. No stationary banding for the most part. The GFS has not been a top performer lately. Each storm is different but regardless - the 12ZGFS does not agree with anything. So what do you do?
It would always be safer to broad brush and use "locally higher amount" terminology. I'm going to take the risk.
This content became public Monday 3:00 PM, Feb 2/11/2019