11:15PM -
10:38PM -
TUES AM |*EARLY TUES AM* | - While the environment is not super supportive of severe weather, the combination of organized thunderstorm activity PLUS strengthening mid level jet will make damaging wind gusts possible across much of Wisconsin. I don't think this will be a major event; just a large zone where winds could be potentially strong/severe.
Model simulation for early Tuesday AM (around 3am)
The MOST LIKELY corridor will cross through Minneapolis MN southeast into western WI. Cannot rule out strong/damaging wind gusts into northern/NE/eastern WI or Michigan (due to dynamics). 12Z models today are pretty aggressive.
I prefer the less aggressive/weaker NAM 3k and NMMB. NAM and HRRR appear to be outliers. Likely to be some convective contamination in advance of the storms. Timing is very early during diurnal minimum. Just not 100% sure and model agreement on placement could be better. Will see how it develops across Minnesota tomorrow and go from there.
TUES AFT - Parameters and wind profiles remain strong into the early afternoon over eastern Wisconsin however the main dynamics/forcing will move out with morning storms. A little too quick. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple isolated t-storms during the afternoon. Not expecting severe weather.